IT musings

I think it's time to come up with some predictions as to where I see IT for the next 12-18 months. Not much point heading beyond that the speed things move at.
I'm having a reasonably quiet day but have been pondering where I think we need to put resources for growth which has prompted this blog.

Cloud computing
Which has become a buzzword to confuse the crap out of pretty much anyone. Ask for a definition of cloud computing and the sheer variety of answers makes ways to use eggs in cooking seem simple. I think from a user perspective (not enterprise) the move to putting documents, settings, emails up on the website is well established - but will become more common place. Offerings from Google (email, docs, storage), Microsoft (new Live Mesh), and a number of other providers allow storage of, for example, documents, email (webmail), bookmarks, general settings etc. All of which means you can, in theory, have all of your work on the web. There are security issues there, but for convenience, it seems a good thing.  I'm quite sold on it, if for no other reason than I don't have to email my documents from home to work etc, and since I use Dropbox, I can access them on the iphone. Seems pointless? It's been useful when I've been trolling vinyl in record shops, since I've got my list on the phone I can check what I've already got.
My concern here is the security, most people don't have secure password, and most people don't change them very frequently, let alone security by the hosting company. This is one reason why I'm using Dropbox over Google for my storage, I'm concerned at the amount of info Google already have about me (from gmail, searches etc), so why stick my documents up there too?

The big corollary is movement to smaller laptops. You don't need power to surf the web, so speed can be sacrificed to make smaller machines. This is where I see the power of the iPad, work on docs, browse the web and listen to music. How many of us really only use the computer for that?
In reality most of us don't use anywhere near the power of the computer we own and, in theory, could get away with a terminal server/thin client connection. This was thrown around a few years ago as the future of computing, but it's not until now that network speed/stability and the potential of the internet, have allowed it to become a realistic approach for users.

For Enterprise users, I see the cloud in the next 6-12 months being a trial period, while security and data storage issues are addressed. Who owns the data and how easily can it be migrated?

Computers
Going on a limb here, but I predict the effective death of the desktop PC in the next 12-18 months. The current economic climate will force a move to greener options (thin client, laptops etc). So outside of the few people who actually need high performance machines (gamers possibly) the rest will continue the move to smaller truly-portable machines. Even for traditionally desktop bound industries, for example movie rendering, there are now options for blade-based processors so thin-client is possible here. In theory anyway.

I think the ipad will really kick start the truly portable PC market. Although I'm in two minds about purchasing one: there is no camera, which limits the use for skype/msn etc, and the multi-threading is a bit pseudo which if you are trying to do a number of things, could be an issue. I also don't see the point of having a 3G one (see below).
Interesting that a number of mobile companies here will give you a 'free' netbook with the purchase of a 3G dongle and plan. I think that's a massive rip-off and have warned a few people off that - see Wireless below.

Wireless
This is where the interesting stuff happens - if we ignore NZs dire ADSL connections and focus on the better UK ones.
I'm currently discussing with our networks team removal of hardwired network connections to the halls. And we all see that within the next year or two, wireless is robust and secure enough to cope with the increased demand. And that's with general student usage of iPlayer, legal (and illegal) P2P usage, movie downloads (via itunes etc).
The ubiquitous nature of wireless means connection is possible pretty much everywhere. So why not kill off hardwired connections - mostly. There is demand for backbones to have the extremely high speed connections being rolled out (100GB+), but whether this needs to be to the users desktop/thin-client is questionable. Actually thin-client entirely negates the use of wired, if the wireless is stable enough...

Another issue I find amusing is people who get cabled connections to their house, then run wireless. Kinda defeats the purpose.

If wireless is going to take over from wired, then I do agree speeds need to be increased - which is likely to mean more connection points, or at least smarter trafficking of data. This isn't an area I know much about...but the hit as more people are connected to the same point is significant.

I also think 3G is dead and shouldn't be used. It's over-saturated as it is, and connection speeds are dire. 4G is on it's way, but can we just go for full wireless? There's big implications for Telco's here as the mobile companies have the investment in 3G, and the traditional (eg BT) telco's have the wireless, could lead to an interesting battle for customers.
That's my point on why I'd be going for a wireless only iPad. All I ever do with my phone is swear when I'm using data over 3G. It would be fine for text, but as sites all use graphics and interaction (eg google maps), 3G kills my battery and my will to live. die 3g, die.
For much the same reason, don't be tempted on the 3G dongle+netbook deals, as they'll lock you into a long term contract (from what I've seen anyway).

OS and Software
I'm sure most of you expect me to say Linux is the way forward. It's not. Or rather, it's nowhere near ready for general users. So for the foreseeable future, it's a niche market and we're stuck with Apple and Microsoft. Both of which I'm fine with, Win7 is good, and I like Mac OS...
What may begin to shake things up is Google when they launch their OS. Given their success and market dominance, and the full integration with GoogleApps/Mail/etc. it could become quite a challenging competition for the two established brands.
Microsoft are obviously concerned, and have responded with the launch of MS Live Mesh. Kind of Dropbox meets Google Apps/Mail. So allows multiple machines access to stuff.

Apple need to seriously rethink their offering, currently MobileMe and iDisk are paid services - which look good, but with the combination of free offers available, I don't see much of a win using them. And cost-wise, they are expensive for what is being offered.

General software has become a web-based service (software-as-a-service), and I think it's ridiculous to expect users to keep paying for basic office programs. Google Apps and MS both offer free web-based options, and OpenOffice has been free for years (and cross-platform). There is the opportunity for enhanced offerings on a cost-model. It's been tried before (Mandriva linux and OpenOffice/StarOffice spring to mind), but never very successfully. Possibly as a lot of them charged beyond what the market was keen to pay.
There is a strong separation here between consumer and enterprise tho', and that's the split that needs to be exploited by software manufacturers. I foresee something like 'buy our enterprise software and get the consumer version free' - or the enterprise comes with a web-based version accesible from outside the organisation. From the looks of Office 2010, and the recent updates to Office 2008 (Mac) that's certainly where MS are headed - as in integration with the MS Mesh Live offerings. Rumours have it that Mesh Live will be synched properly with SkyDrive (25GB online storage for free) in the next few months as well.

eBooks
I can't see the death of paper based books just yet - although as I mentioned in a recent blog, I can see the increasing decline of the newspaper industry.
However with the new Apple iTunes Books section competing head to head with amazon's kindle etc., I think we're in for some fun times as consumers. For ease of use, it's hard to beat itunes, so it's going to come down to compatibility. Amazon have been a bit petty about this recently, but are obviously doing something as ebooks are unavailable on their website.
I can't see a DRM (digital rights management) system working too well here, but there are more limited licensing models available that could work.
Will be interesting times for the book world. We've already seen the death of Borders and the near collapse of other major bookstores, apparently due to a lack of diversification or acceptance of new media forms. Is this the beginning of the megastore (amazon, itunes) and the micro-niche store (indie book shop) with very little as high street stores? I suspect it might be.

Crickey that was a bit of musing.

Links of interest:
MS Live Mesh
Dropbox referral 
Apple iPad
Apple MobileMe